2022 has been extremely hard for the stock markets in the US. Ever since the year started, we are seeing companies suffering from financial losses, weak earnings and their share prices tumble to the ground.
We saw share prices of companies like Coinbase go down by -85%. PayPal went down by -76% and even Facebook (Meta) is down -by 51%.
The economy of the United States tech sector is entering recession and it could be the worst recession we have seen to date. There were various factors involved here including the extreme inflation of the US dollar hitting a record high of 9.1%. These numbers are unheard of. And to make things worse, Russia declared war against Ukraine in March 2022. The effect of these global events has hit the US markets real hard.
The Federal reserve (FED) has been very aggressive in raising interest rates in the interest of combating inflation of the USD. The most recent rate hike being 75 basis points, people are now expecting another rate hike ( perhaps 100 basis points )
As we know, the Indian IT sector has been very closely attached to the US companies and fortunately, the Indian companies are "not yet" affected by the ongoing recession. However, things could change very quickly.
Alok Bansal, MD and global head (BFSI business) of Visionet Systems India, said, “In March this year, India saw the highest inflation rates since October 2020 with a 6.95% spike. We cannot also overlook the possibility of mild repercussions from the US recession affecting us. contribution of the US market in the revenues earned by Indian IT companies is around 40%."
On one hand, we have the US recession and on the other, we have Inflation.
In June 2022 quarter,
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 9,478 crore.
HCL Technologies’ net profit jumped 2.4 per cent year-on-year on its net profit to Rs 3,283 crore
Wipro’s revenue for the quarter rose 17.9 per cent YoY to Rs 21,528.6 crore.
The Indian stock market has done relatively well compared to the US stock market. But as we know it, India depends on the US for tech jobs and we could see the side effects in the form of an economic slowdown or perhaps a recession!
But there is more to the story.
Bloomberg recently conducted a survey and forecasted that India has the least chances of getting into a recession.
We have survey results and news from both positive and negative corners. So, what should we make out of all the ongoing news and a potential wave of recession hitting Indian companies as a result of the devastation happening in the US tech sector?
Only time can tell.